Governments worldwide are pushing for a transition from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs), setting ambitious targets for EV adoption. In Canada, the Trudeau government aims for 35% of new medium- and heavy-duty vehicles to be electric by 2030, escalating to 100% by 2040. However, these targets hinge on the availability of metals crucial for manufacturing EV batteries. The current EV technology relies heavily on metals like lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, and rare-earth elements. Without breakthroughs in battery or fuel technology, such as widespread adoption of hydrogen, meeting these targets will necessitate a rapid expansion of mining and refining operations for these metals. A study by the Fraser Institute reveals staggering numbers: to fulfill EV adoption pledges by 2030, the world will need to establish 50 new lithium mines, 60 nickel mines, 17 cobalt mines, and additional mines for cathode and anode materials, battery cells, and EV components. This amounts to 388 new mines globally. In comparison, as of 2021, the U.S. had only 270 metal mines, while Canada had 70. Meeting EV transition targets while relying on domestic supply chains will require an unprecedented establishment of mines within a short timeframe in both Canada and the U.S.
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